Economies & markets

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) all but promised to cut interest rates at its most recent meeting, even hinting at ’further accommodation’ to follow. With interest rates a major determinant of equity valuations, shares have since soared in celebration of the implicit pledge.

If investment firms had been asked a few years ago: ‘Should we pay attention to politicians?’ the chances are they would have answered ‘No’. Can we continue to say this with impunity?

As wealth managers, we think about the future – whether it’s helping our clients to plan for old age or investing in companies that will still be profitable in 30 years’ time.

Having said earlier in the year that 'it should be remembered there are still some significant obstacles to overcome', we are not wholly surprised that the US-China trade war has escalated again, sparking investor nervousness. There are many unverifiable issues surrounding the trade war. There are, however, certain things we can surmise to help investors navigate the current uncertainty.

We ended 2018 in a funk. Investors were beginning to panic that the global economy was entering a period of sharp downturn, the US yield curve was close to inverting, the Chinese economy seemed to be in trouble, Europe was back in the doldrums and President Trump had engaged in a trade war with China and, at the same time, shut down a big chunk of the US government.

Markets have rallied in 2019 so far. But have they gone too far? We think this quarter's returns may have borrowed somewhat from the expected growth in the second half of the year and hence we feel a little uncomfortable about chasing them.