Economies & markets
Our Chief Investment Office and experts share insights into our house view and macro trends.
We believed that the investment landscape was not as bleak as some market participants were suggesting at the end of 2018, and it is encouraging that investors have now seemingly adopted a much more positive mindset, as evidenced by the sharp recovery in equity markets since their December lows. So, has anything substantial changed in investment markets since the end of last year?
After a turbulent fourth quarter in 2018 that provided a particularly disappointing end to the year (where, for 2018 as a whole, equity markets fell and bonds and cash eked out only meagre positive returns), our attention now turns to how to position investment portfolios for 2019. All the more so as equity markets have rallied strongly since the end of last year. Where to from here?
The theme of Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management’s investment conference was to ‘explore the future’. Expert speakers painted a picture of tomorrow’s world - from global demographic trends to technological advancement – and considered what the future might look like and how it might affect the way we invest today.
When Donald Trump was elected in November 2016, markets soon applauded him as a tax-cutting, regulation-slashing, business-focused President. The welcome mat was withdrawn during 2018, however, as trade wars started to unnerve investors and stall business spending.
Forecasting returns and markets in 2019 is fraught with danger, as unpredictable political events may continue to cause volatility. However, in staying focused on the economic fundamentals, we see more upside than downside next year.
Whilst Brexit negotiations will continue to be complex and drawn out, we believe there are two key factors for investors to consider in this environment.
First, the impact of the changing value of sterling; and second, the impact of Brexit on UK businesses.
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IMPORTANT: Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.