Our Chief Investment Office and experts share insights into our house view and macro trends.
In the US at least, upward market moves of the magnitude we have seen this year are unusual, especially when they are not preceded by a more significant correction (or market fall) than the one which occurred in the final quarter of 2018. Hence, we remain somewhat more cautious than of late.
If investment firms had been asked a few years ago: ‘Should we pay attention to politicians?’ the chances are they would have answered ‘No’. Can we continue to say this with impunity?
Having said earlier in the year that 'it should be remembered there are still some significant obstacles to overcome', we are not wholly surprised that the US-China trade war has escalated again, sparking investor nervousness. There are many unverifiable issues surrounding the trade war. There are, however, certain things we can surmise to help investors navigate the current uncertainty.
As part of ‘exploring the future’, we spoke to different experts to find out what long-term trends are they seeing and how these might affect your long-term financial plans and investments.
We ended 2018 in a funk. Investors were beginning to panic that the global economy was entering a period of sharp downturn, the US yield curve was close to inverting, the Chinese economy seemed to be in trouble, Europe was back in the doldrums and President Trump had engaged in a trade war with China and, at the same time, shut down a big chunk of the US government.
Markets have rallied in 2019 so far. But have they gone too far? We think this quarter's returns may have borrowed somewhat from the expected growth in the second half of the year and hence we feel a little uncomfortable about chasing them.
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IMPORTANT: Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.