Economies & markets

We ended 2018 in a funk. Investors were beginning to panic that the global economy was entering a period of sharp downturn, the US yield curve was close to inverting, the Chinese economy seemed to be in trouble, Europe was back in the doldrums and President Trump had engaged in a trade war with China and, at the same time, shut down a big chunk of the US government.

Markets have rallied in 2019 so far. But have they gone too far? We think this quarter's returns may have borrowed somewhat from the expected growth in the second half of the year and hence we feel a little uncomfortable about chasing them. 

Usually the Chancellor of the Exchequer’s spring statement is an important event in the UK political calendar, albeit one downgraded in recent years now that the full budget comes in the autumn.

We believed that the investment landscape was not as bleak as some market participants were suggesting at the end of 2018, and it is encouraging that investors have now seemingly adopted a much more positive mindset, as evidenced by the sharp recovery in equity markets since their December lows. So, has anything substantial changed in investment markets since the end of last year?

After a turbulent fourth quarter in 2018 that provided a particularly disappointing end to the year (where, for 2018 as a whole, equity markets fell and bonds and cash eked out only meagre positive returns), our attention now turns to how to position investment portfolios for 2019. All the more so as equity markets have rallied strongly since the end of last year. Where to from here?

The theme of Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management’s investment conference was to ‘explore the future’. Expert speakers painted a picture of tomorrow’s world - from global demographic trends to technological advancement – and considered what the future might look like and how it might affect the way we invest today.