Economies & markets
Our Chief Investment Office and experts share insights into our house view and macro trends.
As another year passes and we look toward 2018, we have re-examined our forecasts from a year ago. How accurate were our predictions? And has the world changed very much? Read our scores to see how well we did.
Most 'bear' commentators are expecting chaos in the world economy during 2018. With an ageing bull market, the likelihood of increased volatility and the potential for inflation, upheavals seem inevitable. But what if the commentators are completely wrong and nothing happens?
Most commentators don't think inflation is a big risk over the coming year, and asset prices are certainly not priced for it. But what could make inflation reappear and what would happen if it began to rise in 2018? Read our second blog in a series of potential surprises for the New Year.
In our first possible ‘surprise’ scenario for the New Year, we take a look at Brexit and the effect it will have on economies and markets if things don’t turn out as expected. Since most investment commentators believe the uncertainties surrounding the Brexit negotiations are bad for UK assets and for sterling, what difference would it make if Brexit turns out well?
For the last six months, economic growth has looked increasingly synchronised around the world. In fact, we’ve enjoyed a steady year so far for investment returns, although high valuations have made it difficult to add more risk to our clients’ portfolios. As such, we have been waiting for a market correction before deploying capital to equities more aggressively.
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IMPORTANT: Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.