Economies & markets
Our Chief Investment Office and experts share insights into our house view and macro trends.
Against this backdrop, Michel Perera, Chief Investment Officer provides an update.
Very little has fundamentally changed since the beginning of the year yet the markets are behaving as if we have moved to a different phase in the economic cycle. The reasons are simple: a potential trade war and concerns that we are nearing the end of one of the longest bull markets on record. These are both hampering confidence and the recent technical market correction (market fall) has spawned some fundamental worries.
Market volatility returned in February after a long lull since President Trump’s election. There was a double-digit stock market fall worldwide as inflation and rising interest rate fears came to the fore.
Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) fell into disrepute following their significant involvement in the 2008 financial crisis. Just as technology stocks were avoided long after the 1990s technology bubble had burst, MBS are given a very wide berth. But is this view a valid one today? In this article, Justin Oliver, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at CGWM explores how MBS can be made part of a diversified portfolio.
In our recent articles we have flagged a potential increase in volatility this year as the inevitable ‘price to be paid’ for continued growth in equity markets. It was a matter of when not if. The question is whether the current correction is the beginning of something more sinister - leading to a bear market - or simply reminiscent of 2013’s ‘taper tantrum’.
As equity indices rose during most of 2017, it was clear where market leadership lay. The technology giants like Amazon (up 57% over the year), Apple (up 48%), Facebook (up 53%) and Google/ Alphabet (up 33%) soared, along with their Chinese counterparts Baidu, Tencent and Alibaba (up 42%, 96% and 115% respectively). In this article, we explain why the so-called ’growth’ areas of the market have performed so well.
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IMPORTANT: Investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the amount originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.